Regional News

Thailand Cambodian Trade News

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Border Clashes Negatively Impact Trade

There’s going to be trouble with the Asian economy, and a lot of it. That’s if the situation between Thailand and Cambodia continues. Currently the border clashes there are so detrimental to good sentiments between the two countries, that even though trade is developing, without an end to these clashes, the market share of Thailand goods in Cambodia will be reduced.

According to Kasikorn Research Center (KRC), what will happen is that Thai exporters and potential business investors will lose confidence in placing their businesses in Cambodia. In addition, other countries will start putting pressure on them to take business elsewhere, especially Vietnam.

Good Trading Between Thailand and Cambodia

But it would be a real shame if things went sour. Investment between Thailand and Cambodia has been increasing continuously over the last few years from $1.4bn in 2007 to $2.5bn in 2010. Thailand has been benefitting from this vis-à-vis trade. In addition, trade between the two countries accounts for at least 70 percent of overall trade – that is a huge amount that would be devastating for both places if it things stopped going well.

It’s not all been great news though. In March 2011 there was only a slight increase in export volume. Also, due to border clashes, there was a drop from 34.9 percent in 2008 to 29.9 percent in 2009. There was a large plummet of Thai investment in Cambodia from the 2008 figure of $30.7m to the 2010 figure of $1m.

Vietnam-Cambodia Trade Figures

Consequently there was additional merchandise from Vietnam to the Cambodian market with an increase of 19.5 percent in 2008 to 23.7 percent in 2009. But Vietnamese exports to Cambodia also increased in 2010 by a significant 35.3 percent, culminating in $1.5bn. But anyway Vietnam ranks as Cambodia’s largest investor with “an accumulated investment value of around $49.5m. Thailand comes in second at $47.2m, and Singapore in third place at $24.9m.

So there is work to be done. It would clearly be a huge economic shame if the political situation between Thailand and Cambodia wasn’t resolved – and fast.

Foxy Financial Females?

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Are Asian Women Financially Savvy Today?

Years ago the answer for sure would have been a resounding “no.” But today things are somewhat different. It seems that women in Asia (especially those married, 30+, in the workforce) know their won from their yen and their level of competence is likely to increase further “especially among the younger generation.”

For example, women from Thailand topped financial planning (87) and investment (69.3) scores for financial literacy but Vietnamese women also did pretty well, scoring 70.1 overall, placing them in fourth place. There wasn’t much to sniff at with women from the Philippines either (who did extremely well in Financial Planning), but those from Korea and Japan could probably learn a lesson or two on how to get more financially in-the-know.

Survey Assesses Savvyness

It was the MasterCard Index of Financial Literacy that took a survey of these countries. The questions were posed to 24 markets around APMEA (Asia/Pacific Middle East Africa). It looked at three main areas: Basic Money Management (budgeting, savings and credit responsibility); Financial Planning (their understanding of financial products and services as well as ability to make long-term financial plans); Investment (understanding of risks and products associated with investments). In general, Asian women as a whole did best in Financial Planning.

In developed markets it was women from Australia and New Zealand who were most successful in their financial knowledge. Females from Singapore are pretty good at basic money management but were pretty clueless vis-à-vis anything to do with investments. But when looking at financial literacy, India and China don’t seem to be all that with it.

According to VP of Communications for Asia/Pacific, Middle East and Africa, MasterCard Worldwide, Georgette Tan, “this new MasterCard Index has certainly provided us with fresh insights to women’s aptitude for and knowledge of managing their finances. While it is encouraging to see that women across Asia/Pacific have some degree of financial literacy, it is also apparent that there is still work to be done to improve levels across the board.” This is important as complexities increase in the financial world resulting in a necessity for women to become “more financially confident and competent.” MasterCard also seeks to give more power to these women.

Japan Causes Toshiba Tension

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Japan’s crisis has led to a downturn in Toshiba investment.  According to one of the corporation’s American partners (NRG Energy), there will be no additional investment in a Texas nuclear power project, due to the “Japanese nuclear plant” crisis.  There was the intention of developing a further two reactors near Houston but now David Crane, the company’s president has said that the recent crisis created “multiple uncertainties around new nuclear development in the United States which have had the effect of dramatically reducing the probability [of constructing reactors in the South Texas Project] in a timely fashion.”

US Impacted by Japan’s Crisis

This announcement came in reaction to the Japanese crisis.  NRG – as a result of what happened in the Asian region – “will not [be] invest[ing] additional capital in the STP development effort.”  It has been said that this indicates that the Japanese crisis “has directly affected the US nuclear power industry.”  It remains unclear as to whether Toshiba will move forward with its project with other partners.

New Toshiba Projects

But despite its reservations vis-à-vis the Japanese crisis, Toshiba is still forging ahead with other new and exciting projects.  It is due to “launch its first tablet computer” in a couple of months and, according to company’s digital products and services unit president Masaaki Oosumi, “attempt to gain a 10 percent share of the global tablet market by 2013.”  It is an impressive PC tablet, based on Android’s 3.0 operating system, priced at approximately ¥60,000 (US$730) in Japan.

 

Malaysia Strong Asian Investment Opportunity

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Malaysia: Major Asia Asset

Just two days ago a $3.7bn investment announcement came from Malaysia, set to “to jumpstart foreign interest in its economy even as other Asian countries try to stem speculative inflows in search of higher-yielding markets.” The country’s Prime Minister (Najib Razak) intends to try and get $444bn worth of investments resulting in Malaysia becoming a “developed country by 2020,” including $165m by Asia Media to create digital media infrastructure as well as the establishment of a state-owned energy development agency to be able to attract $106m worth of investments this year. This is all part of the country’s “Economic Transformation Programme,” a project that is due to be put into practice over the next decade.

Other Asian Countries Less Successful

Malaysia has been doing pretty well recently vis-à-vis investments. Indeed it has already attracted around $5bn in pledges from Exxon Mobil and Royal Dutch Shell Pic as well as other (smaller) projects. For example Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand are having quite a few issues attracting investments anything near to the success of neighboring Malaysia.

But this hasn’t deterred Najib who is determined to ensure Malaysia stays one step ahead, “transforming [it] into a high-income economy within 10 years by generating new growth areas and restructuring the economy to lure investors.” Yet this goal is not as easy as it may seem. Investment blueprints from the past aren’t showing such great results. As well, in general the economy has been suffering from a less-than-skilled workforce to enable it to develop into the “financial services hub” it wants to. Yet it is past the stage of being a low-end manufacturing center,” as countries such as Vietnam now have that role.

Notorious Najib

Still, given all these efforts made by the country’s premier, the public is remaining loyal to Najib. Although one has only to look at the facts on the ground to see where the country really is, given that the exchange was down more than 5 percent from where it was just four years ago. While there is now more opportunity for competition, in general, investors are expecting the government to “take more aggressive steps to reduce its fiscal deficit and overhaul an affirmative action policy they say hinders competition.”

Malaysia PJ: Malaysia Post Japan’s Trauma

It might not have been a surprise if any parts of Asia – including Malaysia – would have been negatively impacted by Japan’s trauma. But in fact this hasn’t been the case, according to Datuk Donald Lim Siang Chai, the country’s Deputy Finance Minister. He claimed that it will “have little impact on the Malaysian economy in 2011.” Vis-à-vis the country’s exports to Japan he said that actually some areas (like plywood and liquid natural gas) would actually probably “increase during the second quarter of this year as Japan increases its reconstruction work of earthquake-damaged areas.”

As well, Malaysia probably won’t be affected by Mid-East and North African troubles either since trade between those countries is anyway only at around 2 percent.

So all in all things are looking good right now for Malaysia. The country has developed a strong enough economy and excellent relations with regions with which to continue exporting to see it through any troubled times Asia may be encountering.

A Bull in a China-Euro Shop?

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How China Feels About European Investments

It’s nice that China Investment Corp (CIC) is in a good place financially, but it might be best advised to not put all its eggs in one basket. Established a mere four years ago to invest China’s foreign exchange reserves wisely, the multi-billion wealth fund (with estimated assets as of $532 billion as of two years ago) is seeking potential investment opportunities in Europe but is somewhat realistic about the area’s problems. This would make sense since just over 20 percent of its equity investments have been going into Europe.

Nonetheless, since the CIC has already had significant exposure to Europe, one would think it would be a little more cautious as things stand. Apparently not. Even though sentiment remains somewhat less than optimistic, plans may still forge ahead especially in the infrastructure sectors.

Global Economy

The Boao assembly where these issues were discussed is a gathering of government, business and academic leaders to “discuss pressing issues in the region and the rest of the world.” In recent times, China has been purchasing foreign currencies that are put towards its exports as a way of controlling the yuan value. In general they are put into sturdy US Treasury bonds but given the global economic fiasco, the CIC has been making efforts to “be more aggressive to improve returns.”

CIC and Asia Exporters

According to Asia’s largest thermal coal exporter Bumi Resources, talks were being held with CIC about the possible “swap of $600 million debt into equity” but this would obviously require the total support of CIC, according to Kenneth P. Farrell, the company’s director and CEO of Bumi Resources Minerals.

Nonetheless, the main priority of Bumi is to “repay a first tranche of $600 million in debt this October — two years earlier than scheduled — out of a total $1.9 billion it owes to China's sovereign wealth fund.

Global Financial System Reform?

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BRIC Leaders Meeting

BRIC nation leaders (Brazil, Russia, India and China) are meeting up in China for a one day conference. BRIC is actually a bit of an inaccurate description now (it should really be changed to BRICS) since South Africa recently joined. As a unit they have both economic and political influence today, and also form part of the G20. The topic to be addressed will be reforming the global financial system since the nations comprising the BRIC make up 40 percent of the world’s population and nearly a fifth of its growth. Given these statistics, the BRICS feels they deserve a “greater say in global affairs.” While BRICS influence has increased since the start of the global financial crisis, there is still much more to be done.

BRICS Status

The BRICS will be discussing rules regarding international trade but there is no guarantee that it will hold much weight. BRICS are in favor of free trade and against protectionism, but in general don’t agree on much. Since all BRIC countries fared well vis-à-vis the 2008 economic crisis, they have already proven themselves. India has a global economic status vis-à-vis being a service provider and engages in the most trade with China although has a large trade deficit with the Chinese.

China Success

China is doing very well in the hi-tech industry, now having the status as a “mass producer of hi-tech products,” such as semi-conductors and solar panels. As well it is doing well in garment and textile industries, maintaining its reputation for being top in low-cost high value markets. At the end of the day China needs to continue to “maintain competitiveness in the global economy [through] low-cost manufacturing.” But if prices start to go up, then what will start happening is that companies will start looking elsewhere like Vietnam.

Indeed, just this last year China started constructing high-speed rail around the world, and is now “home to the world’s fastest train,” and it looks like Brazil is going to use Chinese firms to plan their high-speed rail project. But perhaps some of China’s success will come at the expense of other countries. Brazil and India are “concerned” China will “flood their markets with cheap goods.”

BRIC Cohesion?

Even though the four (now five) countries form the BRIC, it seems that in general, experts feel that the acronym alone is insufficient to give them a unified presence “on the global stage.” It is going to take much more time and a “wait-and-see” approach will have to be taken vis-à-vis G20 and other countries collaboration. While the BRIC are lessening their need to work with developed economies, globally they still have to collaborate with the “major industrialized nations.”

So the BRIC (or BRICS) do definitely have much to offer, but they need to work on compromising so that they can become a more cohesive unit and thus a force to be reckoned with vis-à-vis reforming the global financial system.

Japanese Properties to Quake?

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It was bad enough that the whole of Japan was totally shaken up in more ways than one because of the tsunami disaster, but now it seems like the same is going to happen to what remains of its real estate market. Perhaps not surprisingly, companies are now reported as being “cautious” vis-à-vis the country’s property market although they are trying not to enter into drama-panic mode. As Prudential Real Estate Investors Chief Executive J. Allen Smith put it, “we are taking a wait-and-see approach,” given that so little time has lapsed since the disaster, thus rendering it too early to look at the economy and the markets in a stable light.

Real Estate Troubles Pre-Quake

However, what many are failing to realize, is that even before the terrible disasters struck Japan, the country was reeling from real estate woes. Indeed, over the last two-and a-half years, figures showed a drop in the country’s commercial real estate markets by nearly 20 percent (to the end of the third quarter of 2010). Even at the time this was somewhat of a shock, with Japan ranking as the second biggest “commercial property market by value,” being “one of the few major real estate markets to continue to record capital depreciation.” This clearly reflects its stagnant economic growth.

No Long-Term Lull

So the question being asked then – given all this background information – is what chance does the country now stand of beefing up its real estate market? Well, things don’t have to be all that gloomy, at least not for the long-term. While it is the case that companies like Prudential Real Estate Investors are standing back somewhat from jumping on Japanese properties, they hope this will change in the not-so-distant future. Indeed, the country was described by the company as “an important real estate market,” so with that kind of language, it is unlikely to show itself as a fair-weathered friend.

As well, one of Prudential’s new funds has “earmarked about 50% of capital for Japan,” although it is still “taking a step back” vis-à-vis the country and its real estate. Still, there is funding going on in certain specific parts and markets of Japan, like Tokyo’s retail property assets. Thankfully, according to Smith, “the assets weren’t damaged in the massive quakes.”

Prudential Investing

Despite all of this, it does seem that Prudential remains serious about Japan and its real estate market. Even when things were looking particularly gruesome, the company’s financial chair and CEO John Strangfeld committed the Prudential Foundation to putting $6.1 million to “support disaster relief in Japan,” at the end of last month. Moreover, at around the same time, Prudential Real Estate Investors “co-invested with clients on two Pan-Asia funds totaling about $1.5 billion that have ‘meaningful allocations to Japan.’”

So while things definitely could be better for Japan, its economy and its real estate market, given the earthquake and tsunami disaster, as well as the problems it was experiencing prior to all of this in its markets, it seems clear that there is still confidence in the world’s second largest commercial property market, third largest economy and global financial player.

China-Mongolia Investment

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It seems that the China-Mongolia border is set to be getting a coal processing project which will “better use coal imports from the Republic of Mongolia.” China’s biggest coal producer – China Shenhua Energy Co – has just set out plans at an estimated cost of 10 billion yuan for this venture. Construction has already started in the Ganqimaodu Customs Processing Park.
Ganqimaodu Customs is a major energy imports gateway between China and the Republic of Mongolia, handling a staggering 7.71 million tons of coal imports in 2010. In addition, it has been said that the Shenhua project is set to have a “coal washing ability of 6 million tons per year, coking capacity of 2.4 million tons a year and an annual capacity of producing 4.8 million tons of methanol and 30,000 tons of tar, respectively” by 2012.

Major Mongolian Economic Reform

This new investment project doesn’t stand alone vis-à-vis economic reform in the Republic of Mongolia. Economically, the region is set to undertake significant change over the next ten years, especially vis-à-vis the mining field with its huge reserves and potential for a “mining mania” and Mongolia’s reaction to it all. The recent Mongolia Economic Reform focused on how best to cope with this transition. What remains to be seen is how the country will deal with it all and how its other industries – most notably agriculture (its largest industry) will cope with “a strengthening currency and Chinese competitiveness is squeezing even this most basic of industries.”

So while there is good news for Mongolia vis-à-vis the coal processing project with China, there is always more to the story. Mongolia has other issues with which to deal that are impacting its region on a day-to-day basis.

Happy Days for UAE

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Well, anyone living and investing in the UAE should be pretty happy. Things are going well which is why it shouldn’t be such a great surprise that the population has more than doubled in the last few years. In fact, figures show that there has been an increase of a staggering 65 percent inhabitants in the region from 2006 to 2010. This could be to do with the economy since most of these newbies to the area are comprised of overseas investors and workers with a mere 11 percent of those living there being UAE nationals at the end of June 2010. It is Abu Dhabi that has had the large influx of investors.

GDP Rise

The region’s non-oil GDP was said to have increased by 3.3 percent over the course of the year, according to figures released by the International Monetary Fund, as opposed to the 2.1 percent figure of last year. Additional development is anticipated due to the UAE’s “low interest rates, strong crude prices and better prospects promote expansion. ” People living in the area are thrilled with the news and “optimistic” that such trends are set to continue.

More Pocket Money?

But, at the end of the day, it remains unclear as to whether all this good news will mean more money in the pocket of the average UAE citizen. Apparently it may not. It looks like salaries are going to either stay the same or just increase a minimal amount. This is despite the fact that it seems to be an employee’s market right now as companies are on the lookout for a not-endless supply of skilled workers. So it seems a bit strange that salaries remain under lock and key. Nonetheless it’s all relative. Despite the lack of rising salaries, according to a study these salaries are still at the top of the entire Middle East market.

Pakistan Investments Increase

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Pakistan Packs It In

Despite the crazy floods to strike the country just a year ago, impacting a staggering 18 million people, it looks like Pakistan’s economy is actually growing today. Indeed, it looks like the country will be joining forces with Malaysia and economists expect economic cohesion between the two countries to expand “by at least 10 percent this year.”

According to Datuk Mukhriz Mahathir, Malaysia’s Deputy International Trade and Industry Minister, there could be joint work between the following sectors: chemicals, palm oil downstream products, petrochemicals, and telecommunications. Because both countries have their own strengths, Mahatir told a “Business and Investment Opportunities in Pakistan” conference that he believes the two should take advantage of each other for mutual benefit.

Indeed, this has already been happening. The figure recorded for Pakistani investments in Malaysian manufacturing area reached a total of RM1.099 billion spanning 26 projects. As well, last year trade between the two countries was recorded at RM7.991 billion.

Booming Bahrain

Economic and financial advancement in Malaysia is going beyond the scope of its host country. Indeed its trading with Bahrain shot up to $192.2 million. As well, last year Malaysian exports to Bahrain reached $71.57 million and $120.6 million the other direction.

According to CEO of My Events International, Shahul Hameed, this “increased trade not only reflects a healthy business relationship with emerging countries in the South East Asian region but also shows its eagerness to explore key investment and financial opportunities inside and outside of the Middle East region.”

For sure whenever political issues get ironed out it, the way will be paved for economic and financial development as well.