Regional News

Good Times Ahead for China

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Property Peaks in Beijing

It looks like China is set to witness a property peak in the few months. According to experts in foreign real estate funds, this sector is due to “tighten” during this time frame. Grosvenor Asia Pacific manages $16b in assets and is setting out to raise “at least $270 million for a fund that will invest in Chinese properties as part of its expansion in Asia.” According to CEO of Savills Greater China, Raymond Lee, “a good opportunity will emerge for long-term investors in the coming six to 12 months, and what foreign real estate funds are doing now is finding a legal fund vehicle that can get their money into the country.” Indeed, substantial funding is expected to get to China before 2012 as well.

Increase in Investment

News from the Commerce Ministry is the increase in “utilized foreign investment” by 27 percent, reaching $17.8b by February 2011. Of this, $4.15b was in the real estate sector. In an effort to curb this, local authorities were ordered to “halt the approval of some foreign property investments to stop speculative purchases, it said in a Nov 22 statement.” Local authorities will have to “strengthen their reviews of foreign exchange inflows for real estate transactions and documentation for land rights.” Right now there are two principal channels for foreign capital that “flow into the Chinese mainland’s property market”: participating in development with local partners and cooperating with Hong Kong-listed real estate companies.

Real Estate Firms Future

According to President of CB Richard Ellis China, small- and medium-sized real estate firms are likely to feel an additional squeeze by June that will result in more “equity investment opportunities for foreign institutional investors.” This is due to banks making it harder to borrow money and dropping property sales. Prices of residential projects will be “more competitive.” As well, for those medium- and high-end homes which witnessed “excess short-term price growth,” are being impacted by government real estate “tightening” policies. The advice by experts thus is to avoid these sectors to protect your investment. Ultimately, even though foreign investors have expressed concern about the potential risks in China, a “clear long-term picture through the 12th Five-Year Plan” is still what’s keeping confidence high and bringing investors back to China all the time.

New Zealand New Hotspot

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Chinese NZ Investment

New Zealand is becoming an increasingly more attractive to investors. This has been especially evident in China which has been purchasing more NZ bonds than ever. Recent reports show that investments from China could amount to $6b which will have an impact on the kiwi dollar that could increase to 81 cents (which would be a three year peak) “against the greenback.” According to Craigs Investment Partners market analyst Peter McIntyre, “there have been reports that the Chinese foreign exchange reserves are looking to diversify around about 1.5 percent of their assets into New Zealand denominated assets like government bonds, companies and dairy farms.”

Nice New Zealand

That is one way of describing the country. Nice. New Zealand is definitely “nice” for investors since in terms of financial security, it is very stable. There is also a “high domestic inflation rate” with large returns too. It seems to be the whole region is finding New Zealand attractive, most notably Singapore and Hong Kong which are looking into government bonds.

These changes have been happening for a few years now. Countries in Asia are boasting “very large reserves.” There is likely to be additional investments ahead too. China will see an increase in investment from BUD, the Brazilian-Belgium owned Anheuser-Busch InBev and intends to establish a “brewery to make Budweiser in the mainland by the third quarter,” according to Carlos Brito, CEO of the company. The intention is to put in “several hundred million dollars this year.”

Better Beer

The three “top-priority markets” set to “drive the volume growth of the global beer industry,” are: Brazil, China and the USA. Indeed, China alone drinks around 30 liters of beer per annum, rendering it “responsible for around 25 percent of global beer consumption.” Just last week the first brewery was launched by AB InBev in Sichuan, a southwest China province, which according to the company’s Asia Pacific president Miguel Patricio, “aims to better serve the 200 million consumers in the region.” So if you happen to be visiting the Great Wall, consider quenching your thirst with a barrel of beer.

Bahrain Bay Barter

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Talks are in underway between investors from China and Qatar, along with Bahrain Bay Development (BBD). Discussions are underway about the possibility of the company making land available for purchase in BBD’s $2.5b Bahrain Bay property project in Manama. Apparently, already 65 percent of land plots have been sold and now “investors [are] eyeing the remaining 35 percent.” BBD is in talks with Bahraini and Chinese investors too. At the end of this year, the rest of the land will probably be sold “on hopes that market conditions will be better.” The project is in the north of the capital of Bahrain.

It seems like the land is not going to be lying dormant for all that long. BBD has plans to sell it all within “the next two or three years at most.” Land sales only went on hold a few years ago in the “wake of the global financial crisis.” As well, there is currently a bid by eight firms which want the contract to construct the Four Seasons Bahrain Hotel, for $350m.

Also included in the Bahrain Bay development is a trade center Arcapita Bank’s building and a project from Singapore’s CapitaLand. Around 95 percent of the infrastructure for the project has already been completed and the rest will be done by August.

Asian Political Troubles

Political troubles in the region don’t fare well for business. That’s exactly what has been happening in the Gulf Arab island kingdom, which was “wracked by political violence, inspired by uprisings in Egypt and Tunisia.” There has also been substantial stress due to the “economic downturn,” but irrespective of this, Bob Vincent, the CEO of BBD insisted the Bahrain Bay project would be “moving forward as planned.”

Plunge into Pakistan

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Gilani Asks for Chinese Investors

Just a few days ago, Yousuf Raza Gilani, the Prime Minister of Pakistan, asked firms in China to “invest in his country’s energy sector,” in an attempt to boost his suffering economy that is facing crisis following last year’s massive floods as well as in general, “weak Western investment.” But he’s not asking this from a charitable point of view. Gilani believes that Chinese companies can really benefit from making this investment, according to what he said last Thursday at a joint business forum held in Beijing. He added that, “joint ventures, with equity participation of Chinese corporations and financial institutions, can transform Pakistan’s economic landscape and would certainly prove to be a win-win scenario.” He also mentioned how beneficial it would be for these Chinese firms to look to Pakistan when developing their business strategies.

Osama’s Unraveling

Gilani made these statements on the third day of his China trip which is just a few weeks after Osama bin Laden was killed on Pakistani soil. This in and of itself is significant since it “rattled US-Pakistan ties and pushed Islamabad closer to Beijing.” Gilani met with his Chinese counterpart Wen Jiabao last Wednesday and the two have both been pushing the development of mutual ties between the countries at a time when his country is feeling the “pressure about whether its security services knew where bin Laden was.”

Economic Excellence

At the end of the day, there is also great potential for trading and profits between China and Pakistan. Indeed, just looking at figures for last year, trade between the day reached $8.7bn which was an increase of 27.7 percent on-year. There has also been substantial collaboration in the energy sector between the two countries. Indeed, just over a week ago, a nuclear power plant that was built with China was opened in Pakistan and Beijing has signed a contract to build an additional two reactors in an attempt to facilitate energy shortages. Since Pakistan has been dealing with substantial power shortages, production has been limited to approximately 80 percent of the country’s needs. Thus these kind of energy agreements are vital for boosting the economy.

Additional Asian Alliance

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Turkey and Vietnam Need to Join Forces

It seems that if there was greater cooperation between Vietnam and Turkey, the economy climates of both countries would greatly benefit. According to an article in the Vietnam News, they need to get on to this though and start making real efforts so that they will thrive. This is the case for many areas such as: “economics, education and training, [and] science and technology.” It was just two days ago that Nguyen Tan Dung, the Prime Minister of Vietnam, spoke about this in a statement in which he “received outgoing Turkish Ambassador Ates Oktem in Ha Noi.” He had been impressed with the Ambassador’s efforts in his time in office which helped “develop the Vietnam-Turkish friendship and co-operation.”

Better Buddies

Although there is still a way to go, things have for sure improved between Turkey and Vietnam in the last few years. For example, just last year, trading between the two countries reached US$850m. At the moment, Turkey and Vietnam are in the process of signing an “investment encouragement and double taxation avoidance agreements.” It is anticipated that these will really give a jumpstart to economic cooperation and partnerships between the two countries.

Put Differences Aside

It is true that there has been tension between the two countries over the years. But imagine what would happen if these were totally put to one side? As it is business between Turkey and Vietnam is booming and got to almost $1bn last year, even with the current political instability. There has been a steady increase of trade between the two countries over the last few years “from almost nothing to $857m in 2010.” In 2002, this figure was just a little more than $100m.

It is Turkey that is vehement in trying to improve relations with Vietnam and working hard towards this goal. It intends to “appoint a trade counselor” to its Hanoi embassy. Vietnam is home to around 86 million people and is the world’s 13th biggest population. So it’s worth everyone working closely with Vietnam, but especially Turkey.

Asia Investment Banks (IBs): Overcrowding?

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It seems like Asia may be encountering a few too many IBs around at the moment, (15 altogether – nine bank-backed and six non-bank backed). But which ones are doing really well? Apparently the CIMB group has a lot to say for itself, having been described as “ambitious” in its attempts at becoming a “leading universal bank in South- East Asia, providing a full array of banking services ranging from savings accounts to large corporate transactions for fund-raising.”

Going Global

What initially prompted CIMB to become global occurred in 2005 when it acquired RM500mil of GK Goh Holdings Ltd, which apparently gave the bank access to markets in the region, as well as London. Further to that, the bank purchased the Bumiptura Commerce Bank, Southern Bank, PT Bank Niaga and Bank Thai. Acquiring a “strong balance sheet” led CIMB to greater places.

IB Growth

There has been other regional growth for some of the non-bank IBs too. For example, OSK Investment Bank has established various advancement strategies while working hard on putting itself into the “smaller and mid-cap market as well as research capabilities.” Much of its profit hails from Asia, with 30 percent of its “overseas pre-tax profit” hailing from Singapore. Currently the bank is looking to establish its presence in Thailand and Cambodia. In the former country it is doing this with the purchase of BFIT Securities public Co. and in the latter it now boasts “a full-fledged commercial bank with nine branches as well as license for stockbroking and corporate finance.” OSK IB sees the necessity now to pump up its “institutional equity capability.” If it does this successfully in Hong Kong, it will be well on its way to establishing a very solid presence throughout the Asian region since it sees this country as “one of the largest financial gateways.”

There has been significant restructuring in OSK as well as new employees in an attempt to go further in its markets and develop a presence in Europe while “exposing the Asian markets to the Europeans.” As well the company is looking into what they can do in South Korea, Taiwan and China.

It’s Always Sunny in Singapore?

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Stable Singapore Stakes

Is it true that things (financially-speaking) are that good in Singapore these days? Is that what is making the area so attractive for hedge funds, financiers and investors? Indeed the answer should be a resounding yes. The country is for sure facilitating things for these financiers as “setting up shop” is now deemed as much easier in Singapore than in any other Asian city.

If you just take a look at Hong Kong you will see just how much harder it is for such financiers to work. Indeed, managers of hedge funds alone are doing it tough, being forced to engage in the “same licensing requirements as mutual-fund managers.” Small funds in Singapore will be able to continue operating without having a license at all. Since it is today Singapore and Hong Kong which are the countries that have the most operation of hedge funds, of course these financiers would choose the former over the latter.

Seductive Singapore Taxes

The taxes haven’t always been so attractive in Singapore. But today they are, given what is going on in the UK. Currently the highest taxes for individuals reaches 20 percent in Singapore but the UK recently put their top rate up to a staggering 50 percent. In addition, the whole of Europe – as well as America – in general works on “tougher rules.”

So it makes sense that hedge funds in Singapore saw a significant development, reaching $48bn at the end of 2009 which was a jump of $10bn from just four years earlier. In 2001 there were only 20 hedge funds; two years ago that figure had escalated to 320 hedge fund managers. All predictors are pointing to a continued hedge fund interest looking to “tap Asia as a source of funds as well as a source of excess returns,” over the next year.

Singapore Squeeze?

While this is great for the country, is it so good for the people and the businesses already in existence there? Apparently there is the fear that “the increasing number of global hedge funds is unlikely to crowd out smaller Singapore-based managers.” There will however, be space for “large and niche players” as long as they keep adding “value to investors.” There is now more focus on “transparency and risk management by investors post-crisis,” also, which will lead to hedge fund managers around the world developing their “mid-bank office infrastructure.”

It’s great that Singapore is providing such an attractive environment for financiers around the world and that for sure will help the country’s economy. But at the same time, it has to ensure it looks after its own.

Germany Goes to Chinatown?

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Well, not exactly. But there will be some mega-German investments in China. BMW is currently planning to advance development of its work in China with “investments to increase manufacturing capacity.” According to the company’s board of management chair, Norbert Reithofer, the Chinese really like the BMW vehicles and “anticipate” more growth for the company for the future.

Mega Monies Investments

Hence the company in Germany is combining its efforts with their “joint venture partner Brilliance” in an effort to further develop the investment monies it announced before which was already significant at EU 560m. This will be taking place in Shenyang which is where their Chinese facility is. Now, the figure will be increased to EU 1bn.

This extra money will be split between BMW and Brilliance and be utilized for the construction of paint shop, press shop and to advance the Tiexi plant’s infrastructure in anticipation of greater production capacities hoped for the future.

German-Chinese Manufacturing Relations

Germany has had a good relationship with China vis-a-vis investments for a while now. For the last six years, there has been production in China of both the BMW 3 and 5 Series. Around a year and a half ago, BMW Germany said it was planning on constructing a second production plant in China “with the BMW X1 slated to begin production there in 2012.” Further, this renders China as BMW’s “third-largest market worldwide, with 167,116 vehicles sold in China during the last financial year.” The plan is that there will be an expansion of over 100,000 vehicles per annum at the first facility (Da Dong) and then at the second one, 200,000.

Awesome Asian Achievements? Coming Soon

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Asian Job Creation Scheme

The economic climate and job potential in Asia is about to get a kick-start. A group of economic development officials led by Gov. Bob McDonnell just set out on an “11-day job creation and economic development marketing mission,” to China, Japan and South Korea at an estimated cost of $278,000. This scheme will be financed by taxpayers. He is being joined by Jim Cheng, Secretary of Commerce and Trade, Todd Haymore, Secretary of Agriculture and those connected with Virginia.

The group is Virginia Economic Development Partnership which will – through the efforts – be able to try and develop relations with various companies and potentially acquiesce new clients for their projects as their will be a promotion of various investment/business opportunities hopefully also resulting in “job creation initiatives throughout the Commonwealth.”

Project Gets First Lady Backing

Not only is First Lady Maureen McDonnell supportive of this great project, she is showing it by being part of the mission. McDonnell will be traveling to China and South Korea “focusing her efforts on promoting tourism and the Virginia wine industry.” Her husband believes they have much to offer, offering “a great tax, regulatory and litigation environment,” amongst other incentives.

There will be meetings with CEO’s and business executives from around the world who will be told about the benefits of investing in Virginia. It is essential that jobs are created for “our citizens” who need them he said and thus the company “will not sit by and watch as the jobs….are awarded to other states and countries that choose to be more proactive and visible.”

Worldwide Job Creation Competition

It seems that right now there is a lot of competition to try and get more jobs in the private sector area that is set to “power and define the 21st century economy.” McDonnell wants Virginia to “win that competition,” which will lead to extra “jobs and opportunities” for the citizens to ensure a “better and stronger Commonwealth in the years ahead.”

Escalating Chinese Exports

In terms of the export markets, things are going well for China now. In 2000, china ranked number 14 but now it holds the number 2 position. This is why it is now a great environment to receive McDonnell and his mission in an attempt to “promote Virginia’s location advantages to approximately key 100 business executives.”

There is a great chance that this mission will be successful since McDonnell has done it before when he went to Europe last year. At the time he “helped close a lucrative economic development deal that led to the company investing $28.3 million to expand its O’Sullivan Films operation in Winchester.” Over 150 new jobs were created there following this.

So let’s hope McDonnell does it again and Asia’s job market will really benefit too.

Peachy Pakistani Possibilities

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Great Investment Opportunities in Pakistan

Despite the somewhat trying environment in Pakistan, according to Syed Yousouf Raza Gilani, the country’s Prime Minister believes that the country offers amazing investment opportunities for outside investors. Indeed, if you look at the stats, Gilani is probably not wrong. As he claims, the fact that over seven hundred companies have been making such investments in the country proves that it presents “lucrative opportunities.” Otherwise these companies wouldn’t be advancing. In addition, the PM claimed it was merely “propaganda” vis-à-vis his country’s security situation and that foreign businessmen should ignore this and instead choose to “invest in diverse sectors for securing tremendous dividends.”

Gilani Goes Gabbing

So Gilani went to France. Arriving two days ago, he is there to discuss defense and economic matters. There was also a signature on a Memorandum of Understanding between the two countries in an effort to develop a Joint Business Council that is meant to encourage “mutually advantageous trade.”

Despite what Gilani is saying however, there has been concern over rather pricey taxation for those investing in Pakistan. This was also discussed with Hina Rabbani Khar (Pakistan’s Minister of State for Economic Affairs) asking the French entrepreneurs who were voicing this complaint to “provide detailed proposals either directly to the government or through their embassy so that these might be looked into and considered in the next budget.”

Pakistani Perception Problematic

According to Gilani, there are huge misconceptions vis-à-vis what is really going on in Pakistan. He is not happy with how the media has been portraying things and urges them to refocus on what is actually going on with the country and the real issues it is encountering while at the same time battling the country’s problems of terror. As well, French potential investors should come see for themselves; visit the country and check out how investors succeed in Pakistan and have been doing so for years.

So there is a lot of good news in Pakistan. Despite what the media portrays and what we thus see on our TVs, when it comes to investment opportunities, rather than believe what we see/hear, if we are serious about making a rupee or two then we need to take a plane to Pakistan ourselves.