European banks

Trade Financing in Asia

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The Asian Development Bank is expecting a sudden increase in demand for trade financing as European banks limit their lending in the face of the ongoing crisis.

“The trade-finance program is filling persistent market gaps, but it will become even more important,” said Steve beck of ADB. “With some major European banks retrenching from the trade-finance business, we see that the gaps are increasing.”

Beck predicts even more growth in the operation, which is already worth $3 billion. A credit crunch will most affect smaller emerging markets such as Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Vietnam. There is risk for a collapse similar to that of 2008, which will inhibit growth across the continent and add to the global recession.

Now, European banks are scrambling to raise their capital ratios, and Morgan Stanley estimated that many lenders would lower their leverage by $2 trillion to $3 trillion.

“European banks that had exposure in Asia have had to repatriate some of the money from Asia, and that’s why you see volatility” in the area’s exchange rates, explained Iwan Azis, also of ADB.

Japan Returning To Recession?

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Well, if it did it certainly wouldn’t be surprising.  There’s not that much worse than what the country endured last week, with the extent of its earthquake and tsunami.  So why is this enough to make headline news?  Well, because what’s newsworthy is that the country looks set to “become the first Group of Seven member” to go back to that recession status following the easing of the global financial crisis.

Statistics and Truth

Although it is said that there are lies, damned lies and statistics, in Japan’s case it seems like the figures are speaking for themselves.  The G7’s yen sales depreciated the currency the most since September to ¥80.58 per US dollar at Friday’s close in New York.  This is very different to its postwar peak of ¥76.25 on March 17.

European Banks Band Together

The potential problems of Japan’s economy and currency following the country’s disaster have led various European banks to join with the Bank of Japan “in the first co-ordinated intervention by the G7 since the launch of the euro a decade ago.”  It is anticipated that the US Federal Reserve will be joining this effort too.  It is hoped that such action “may help corporate sentimate to recover, a key factor in reviving growth, along with public spending said Takuji Aida, UBS AG economist in Tokyo.

For sure when there is such a strong economic force working together the economic recovery of a country stands a way greater chance than it slumping back into a recession.  And if that is the case, then the global economy faces a far greater likelihood of being able to recover which will benefit everyone.  So let’s hope the European and American banks put their money where their mouth is vis-à-vis Japan’s recovery.